CHAPS Purpose Codes Offer a Near Real-Time View of UK Property Completions

CHAPS payment data can show UK property completions within minutes of settlement, giving analysts a much faster read on market activity than published transaction statistics. The key change is the introduction of purpose codes: since May 2025, participants have had to identify the reason for relevant payments. The most commonly used property code, PCOM, marks a property completion payment.

The series offers a direct way to count these payments, replacing an older approach that inferred housing activity from payment values. Its close match with HMRC data suggests PCOM can help track completions as they happen. The distinction matters when activity is turning: published measures arrive with a delay, while CHAPS settlement data can provide an early signal.

How closely PCOM matches transaction data

The comparison uses two established UK housing measures that cover different ground. HMRC counts property transactions worth £40,000 or more, using Stamp Duty Land Tax returns submitted after completion. Its monthly figures arrive with a one-month lag, and the latest month and two preceding months are provisional. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) focuses on completed and registered residential property transactions, which take three months to appear.

Between May 2025 and August 2026, CHAPS recorded 1.6 million PCOM payments. That was equivalent to more than 99% of the number of residential transactions in the HMRC series over the same period. Monthly PCOM volumes had a mean absolute percentage difference of 2.8% against HMRC residential transactions, and a Pearson correlation of 0.96.

PCOM also captures some property-related payments outside the residential series. Against HMRC’s combined residential and non-residential transaction count, the mean absolute percentage difference was 9.9%, with the correlation still at 0.96. That broader comparison points to a useful measure of aggregate property activity, even though the two sources do not cover identical transactions.

Chart 1: Monthly CHAPS PCOM volumes compared with HMRC property transaction data

Notes: The chart compares monthly CHAPS PCOM payment volumes with HMRC transactions completed in the UK at a value of £40,000 or more. HMRC data is shown for total transactions and residential transactions. HMRC data runs through August 2026, with provisional figures from June 2026; CHAPS PCOM data runs through September 2026. The horizontal axis shows months and the vertical axis shows transaction volumes in thousands.

There are sound reasons for the remaining gaps. CHAPS may include property-related payments below £40,000 or payments that do not appear in Stamp Duty Land Tax returns. HMRC, in turn, can include purchases paid through other systems, funded from non-UK bank accounts, or identified through other property-related codes. Differences therefore reflect coverage as well as any change in activity.

Despite those differences, PCOM tracks both HMRC series closely. The timing advantage is its clearest practical benefit: HMRC’s data is delayed by a month, or four months if provisional figures are excluded, whereas CHAPS offers a near real-time view. That may help reveal a shift in completion volumes before it appears in the published series.

When completions take place

Transaction-level timing also makes it possible to examine the rhythm of the market, even though the available history is not yet long enough to build a seasonally adjusted series. The observed patterns are consistent with familiar completion schedules.

• Average daily PCOM volumes during Christmas and New Year were 57% lower than during the rest of the year. The authors suggest some transactions are brought forward and completed before the holiday period.
• Fridays accounted for 36% of transactions, reflecting the concentration of completions before the weekend.
• Fifty-six percent of payments settled before midday, showing that completion activity is concentrated in the morning.

These timing patterns add detail that monthly totals cannot provide. As more observations accumulate, the series may give analysts a clearer view of recurring seasonal movements and changes in daily payment flows.

Payment values need careful interpretation

Purpose codes improve the measure by isolating property completion payments directly. A value-based proxy can mix housing payments with unrelated transfers and miss high-value completions. PCOM gives a more direct count across the range of payments captured by CHAPS, but payment values still need context.

In the 12 months to July 2026, more than two-thirds of PCOM payments by volume fell between £100,000 and £500,000. Those payments represented 50% of the total value settled. The top 1% of payments by value made up more than 17% of total PCOM value. The distribution shows why a proxy focused on typical payment values can understate the contribution of large transactions.

For the same period, the ONS reported an average UK house price of £273,000, while the average CHAPS PCOM payment was £344,000. These figures describe different things. The ONS figure comes from the UK House Price Index, which adjusts for differences in the types of homes sold. PCOM includes a wider set of property transactions and measures completion payment values, making its average more sensitive to large payments.

CHAPS does not contain the property-level details needed to produce a comparable price index. Measures from the ONS, Nationwide and Lloyds use methods that account for property characteristics, helping distinguish underlying price changes from shifts in the mix of homes sold. CHAPS is better suited to tracking transaction counts, timing and payment values than measuring house price inflation.

What the new series makes possible

The analysis uses payment settlement dates, values and purpose codes, without personal information. The more detailed timestamps can support monitoring of payment flows and changes in property activity. One example in the data is a peak in PCOM volumes at the end of March 2025, alongside changes to Stamp Duty Land Tax thresholds. It illustrates how a timely payment series can register a change in market behaviour as it emerges.

There is also scope to examine links between housing completions and mortgage activity by combining CHAPS with complementary data, such as product sales data. That could help connect payment patterns with other parts of the housing finance process, subject to the coverage and timing of the additional sources.

The earlier CHAPS housing measure relied on payment values as a proxy. It broadly tracked year-on-year HMRC trends from 2007 to 2016, but its relationship with the HMRC series weakened from 2023. Purpose codes now make it possible to identify property completions more directly, reducing the reliance on assumptions that could include unrelated payments or miss large transactions. The next test is how consistently the stronger match holds as the series grows.

Simran Mehta and Valentina Macchiati work in the Bank’s Wholesale Payment Division. They thank James Sanders and Sam Cuthbertson for their discussions and comments.